program_engl

IPME RAS, RFFI, SPII RAS

International Scientific School

Modelling and Analysis of Safety, Risk and Quality

in Complex Systems

(MA SRQ - 2001)

June 18-22, 2001

Saint-Petersburg

Organizers

* Institute of Problems of Mechanical Engineering of Russian Academy of Sciences
* Saint-Petersburg Institute of Informatics of Russian Academy of Sciences

Sponsors

* Russian Academy of Sciences;
* Russian Foundation of Fundamental Investigations;
* State Design Research Institute of Atomic Power Ministry (Sosnovy Bor town).

Dear colleagues and friends,

With great pleasure we are inviting you to take part in work of International Scientific School "MODELLING and ANALYSIS of SAFETY, RISK and QUALITY in COMPLEX SYSTEMS" (MA SRQ 2001).

International Scientific School MA SRQ 2001 is focused on actual problems of quantitative estimation of safety, risk and quality in various applied fields of engineering and business. Scientists and specialists in nuclear power engineering, navy, aviation and space vehicles, banking, business, insurance, quality, transport and ecology have presented more 80 papers. Specialists more than 10 countries are participating in work of International Scientific School.

The main goal of International Scientific School is to give the possibility for scientists and specialists to share the results of theoretical and practical investigations in area of modelling and analysis of risk, automation of development and research of risk models, risk model identification by statistical data, complex system control under risk criterion.

The other goal of International Scientific School is to introduce mathematicians, economists and experts to achievements of logical and probabilistic methods ( LPM ) in quantitative estimation of risk of organisational and technical systems. The scientific school of LPM of estimation of safety and risk was developed by I.A.Ryabinin in Saint-Petersburg. In these methods the logical connections, existing in objects of risk, and initiating events as arguments of functions of algebra of logic, are took into account. The using of LPM permits to get really useful practical results for various applications. Attractiveness of LPM is in their exceptional clarity, simplicity and large possibilities for analysis of influence of any arguments on safety and risk of all system.

Finally, Saint-Petersburg (the former capital of Russia) with about 5 millions inhabitants is recognized as one of the most beautiful cities in world. Various travel tours through Saint-Petersburg and suburbs, including visits to Tsar's palaces and museums will be organized during both the School days and the weekend.

We will very glad to see You in Saint-Petersburg, in June, 2001.

E.Solojentsev, Co-Chairman of Orgcommittee.

International Program Committee

K.V.Frolov (chairman, Russia)

N.Machutov (co-chairman, Russia)

B.P.Ivchenko (co-chairman, Russia)

I.Ryabinin (co-chairman, Russia),

E.Solojentsev(co-chairman ,Russia)

V.V.Alexandrov (Russia)

Ju. Belyaev (Switzerland)

V.A.Zaslavsky (Ukraine)

E.Collani (Germany)

J. Kolari (USA)

H. Kumamoto (Japan)

A. Mojaev (Russia)

M. M. Nikulin (France)

A.A.Novosyolov (Russia)

V. Okorokov (Russia)

V.E.Prohorovich (Russia)

I.V. Safonov (USA)

A.N. Sinyakov (Russia)

R.I.Solnitsev (Russia)

M.Finkelstein (South Africa)

N.V. Hovanov (Russia)

S.G.Tsiramua (Georgia)

L. Shernenkaj (Russia)

National Organizing Committee

V.P.Bulatov (chairman)

G.N.Antonov (co-chairman)

E.D.Solojentsev (co-chairman)

V.P.Gaenko

V.V.Karassev

G.I.Myasnikova

I.P.Simakov

Secretariat of MA SRQ 2001-02-20:

Prof. E.D.Solojentsev

Institute of Problems of Mechanical Engineering of RAS

Bolshoy avenue, 61 V.O.

199178 , Saint-Petersburg, Russia

Phone.: +7(812)321-4766; fax: +7(812)321-4771.

E-mail: sol@sapr.ipme.ru

http://www.ipme.ru/ipme/labs/iisad/sapr1.htm

Transportation

You can reach Saint-Petersburg:

By plane: via St.Petersburg International Airport (Pulkovo - 2). Saint-Petersburg is directly connected to the most of the European Capitals;

via Saint-Petersburg Domestic Airport (Pulkovo - 1). St.Petersburg is 50 minutes flight from Moscow. In Moscow you can get to the domestic airport Sheremetevo I by the bus ##517,551 and the shuttle (from the subway station "Rechnoy Vokzal"), by the shuttle from the subway station "Airport" or by the shuttle from the Moscow International Airport Sheremetevo II.

By train: St.Petersburg is 8 hours from Moscow by train from the railway station "Leningradsky Vokzal" by subway (get off at "Komsomolskaya" stop.

The School will be held at the:

Conference Hall of IPME RAS (Plenary sessions and section "Risk in business and ecology ").

Bolshoy avenue, 61 V.O. ,Saint-Petersburg

Phone.: +7(812)321-4766;

Conference Hall of SPII RAS, 500 meters from IPME RAS

(Section "Risk in engineering").

14- linia , 61 V.O. Saint-Petersburg

Phone.: +7(812)328-4450

You can reach IPME RAS and SPII RAS:

From railway station "Moskovsky Vokzal": take the subway ("Mayakovskaya" station), line 3, get off at "Vasileostrovskaya" station. Further, go on foot about 15 minutes to IPME RAS.

From railway station "Moskovsky Vokzal": take the trolleybus N 10 or bus N 7 or shuttle on Nevsky Avenue and reach the 16 linia stop. It is near the IPME RAS.

From International Airport (Pulkovo-2): take the bus N 13 or shuttle to subway station "Moskovskaya". Further, take the subway and go to subway station "Vasileostrovskaya". Further, go on foot about 15 minutes to IPME RAS.

From airport (Pulkovo-1): take the bus N 39 or shuttle to subway station "Moskovskaya". Further, take the subway and go to subway station "Vasileostrovskaya". Further, go on foot about 15 minutes to IPME RAS.

Language

English and Russian are official languages. The translation will be provided.

Proceedings

Proceedings of the International Scientific School MA SRQ 2001 will be distributed to the participants at the registration desk.

Accomodation

A number of hotel rooms have been booked in "Academicheskaya" Hotel, having third category, in St.Petersburg for participants of MA SRQ 2001. The Hotel is situated near subway station "Udelnaya". To reach IPME RAS from the Hotel it's necessary to take the subway station "Udelnaya" and get off at subway "Vasileostrovskaya".

Lunches

Lunch tickets will be available at the registration desk. The lunches will be provided in nearest cafe

Registration

The participants are invited to pick up their bag at the registration desk. The registration desk will be open for registration matters and other information during the following hours:

Monday, June 18 9:00-14:00

Tuesday, June 19 9:00-14:00

Wednesday, June 20 9:00-14:00

Thursday, June 21 9:00-14:00

Friday, June 22 9:00-14:00

International connections

International connections will be provided during plenary sessions and sections, lunch time, and from 18:00 till 19:00

School Banquet

School Banquet will take place in Friday, June 22. Banquet tickets can be acquired during registration.

Social Program

Saint-Petersburg (the former capital of Russia) with about 5 millions inhabitants is recognized as one of the most beautiful cities in world. Various travel tours through Saint-Petersburg and suburbs, including visits to Tsar's palaces and museums will be organized during both the School days and the weekend.

Famous Hermitage Museum is located near the place of School. It's open everyday except Monday from 10:00 till 18:00.

Saint-Petersburg is known not only for its palaces and museums. It's a historical scientific center of Russia, where the first Russian University and Russian Academy of Sciences were founded in 1724. Among first professors of St.Petersburg University were Leonhard Euler (who lived in Russia for 30 years and wrote his best papers there ) and Daniil Bernoulli. Therefore in addition to sightseeing tours we are planning to organize historical scientific tours including visits to historical buildings of St.Petersburg University and Russian Academy of Sciences. You will have unique possibility to see houses, where L. Euler, P.Chebyshev, A.M.Lyapunov, A.A.Markov lived and worked.

Sightseeing Tours

A few sightseeing tours can be organized for participants and accompanying persons:

June 18, 16:00 - Survey bus tour of Saint-Petersburg.

June 19, 19:00 - Waterbus tour of Saint-Petersburg.

June 20, - Hermitage.

June 21, - bus tour "Peterhoff fountains".

June 22, - bus tour "Pushkin - Pavlovsk ".

Tours should be paid ( US$ 25-30 ) during registration.

PROGRAM

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Monday, June 18

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First plenary session, IPME RAS, Conference Hall
Chairman N.A.Machutov

10⁰⁰- 10²⁰	Opening of International Scientific School.
10²⁰- 11⁰⁰	Frolov K.V. , Bulatov V.P. (Russia, Moscow, IPME RAS; Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Fundamental and applied investigations in theory of dynamic systems and chaos.
11⁰⁰- 11⁴⁰	Ryabinin I.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy). Logical and probabilistic theory of safety and its possibilities.
11⁴⁰- 12²⁰	Kumamoto H., Okabe K., Hiraoka T., Nishihara (Japan, Kyoto University). Probabilistic risk assessment of automobile collision accidents at a crossing without a traffic light.
12²⁰ - 12⁴⁰	Coffee
12⁴⁰- 13²⁰	Machutov N.A., Petrov V.P., Gadenin M.M., (Russia, Moscow, IPME RAS). Scientific developments on complex problems of safety of Russia.
13²⁰ - 14⁰⁰	Finkelstein M.S. (Republic of South Africa, University of the Orange Free State ). Measures of risk and concept of acceptable risk.

Section "Risk in business and ecology", IPME RAS, Conference Hall

Chairman V.A. Zaslavsky

15⁰⁰- 15²⁵	Kulik B.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Probabilistic simulation of systems on basis of touple algebra.
15²⁵ - 15⁵⁰	Lauridsen K., Kozine I. ( Denmark, Systems Analysis Department, Risoe National Laboratory) and Amendola and M.Christou (EC-Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy) EU advances in identifying sources of uncertainty in risk analysis.
15⁵⁰- 16¹⁵	Parfyenov Ju.M.(Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Engineering Institute). Ranging of arguments in monotone functions of algebra of logic under their importance.
16¹⁵- 16⁴⁰	Vyselka A.A., Malafeyev O.A. (Russia, SSU). Dynamic competitive model of spreading of technology.
16⁴⁰ - 16⁵⁰	Break
16⁵⁰- 17¹⁵	Novosyelov A.A. (Russia, Krasnoyarsk, ICM SD RAS). Monotony and swelling of some measures of risk.
17^{15 -}17⁴⁰	Kasheev D.E. (Russia, Tver State University). Generalized Kox' process: simulation of movement of cost of financial assets.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁵	Komartsova L.G., Borsuk N.A. (Russia, Kaluga branch of the MSTU name.N.E.Bauman). Building of neural networks enviroment for forecasting of quality of designed distributed calculating system.

Section "Risk in engineering", SPII RAS, Conference Hall

Chairman G.A.Ershov

15⁰⁰- 15²⁵	Prourzin V.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Algorithms of numerical analysis of reliability characteristics and risk for complex technical system on basis of "failure trees".
15²⁵- 15⁵⁰	Osipov A.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, MSC RF-CSRI "Electropribor"). Multiagent model of task of divergence of ships with estimation of safety of trajectory.
15⁵⁰- 16¹⁵	Paderno P.I. (St.Petersburg State ElectroTechnical University). Modification of method of analysis of hierarchies for estimation of human-mashine systems.
16¹⁵- 16⁴⁰	Gaenko V.P. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Scientific Research Centre of Safety of technical systems of MD of RF). Logical and probabilistic models and results of investigationèof development of group explosive processes.
16⁴⁰ - 16⁵⁰	Break
16⁵⁰- 17¹⁵	Grishko Ja.P., Kozlov A.I., Bautov A.N., Kuznetsov V.I., Firov N.V. (Russia, 4 CSRI MD RF). Analysis and estimation of risks, concerned with start of RKN and functioning NKI under preparing of starting of SA.
17¹⁵- 17⁴⁰	Simakov I.I., Simakov I.P. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SIU "Aurora", Naval Academy). Development of mathematical models and methods of systems analysis of reliability, vitality and safety of objects with high risk of exploitation.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁵	Turkin V.A. (Russia, Novorossiisk, SNA name admiral S.O.Makarov). Estimation of risk of appearance of emergency conditions in case of vaguely determined initial data.

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Tuesday, June 19

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Second plenary session, IPME RAS, Conference Hall
Chairman I.A.Ryabinin

10⁰⁰- 10⁴⁰	Charshenko S.G. (USA). Organisation of international partnership on problems of risk.
10⁴⁰- 11²⁰	Mozhaev A.S. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy). Software for automated structural and logical simulation of complex systems (PC ASS 2001).
11²⁰- 12⁰⁰	Safonov Ig. (USA, IUSI, Moscow - Washington).Trust Engineering and Risk Management of Complex Systems.
12⁰⁰ - 12¹⁵	Coffee
12¹⁵- 12⁵⁰	Solojentsev E.D. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Logical and probabilistic risk models in business with groups of incompatible events and their identification.
12⁵⁰-13²⁵	Ivchenko B.P. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg Academy of Informatiology). Theoretical basis of information-statistical analysis of complex ecological and technical systems.
13²⁵- 14⁰⁰	Novosyolov A.A. (Russia, Krasnoyarsk, ICM SD RAS). Concept of risk ans methods of its measures.

Section "Risk in business and ecology", IPME RAS, Conference Hall

Chairman A.A. Novosyolov

15⁰⁰- 15²⁵	Kan Ju.S. (Russia, Moscow State Aviation Institute). Optimisation of Investments in discount papers under quantile criterion of quality.
15²⁵- 15⁵⁰	Krichevsky, Sirotkin V.B. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentals Making). Probabilistic model of estimation of risks of classification of object.
15⁵⁰- 16¹⁵	Solojentsev E.D. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Logical and probabilistic models of risk of loss of quality and market.
16¹⁵- 16⁴⁰	Dubrovina A.V., Koretsky N.H. (Ukraine, Zaporozhye Institute of State and Municipal Administration). Forming of currency portfolio as a way to reduce currency risk.
16⁴⁰- 16⁵⁰	Break
16⁵⁰- 17¹⁵	Slotin Ju.S. (Russia, Moscow, Institute of Problem of Ecology and Evolution name A.N.Severtsev RAS). Quantitative estimation of factors with account of effects of interplay under simulation of risk and safety of complex systems.
17¹⁵- 17⁴⁰	Rookin A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Analysis of logical and probabilistic models of credit risk and their structural identification.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁵	Kalnitsky V.S. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg State University), Akerman E. (Israel, Haifa -University). Objective function in task of effective distribution of resources of enterprise.

Section "Risk in engineering", SPII RAS, Conference Hall

Chairman A.S. Mozhaev

15⁰⁰- 15²⁵	Dodin I.S., Kuznetsov A.N., Prohorovich V.E. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Military space engineering University name A.F.Mozhaisky). Simulation of price of possible technical risks as components of cost of exploitation of SRA outside limits of warranty resource.
15²⁵- 15⁵⁰	Sokolov B.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS). Methods and algorithms of management of reconfiguration of structures of information system in conditions of perturbation actions of environment.
15⁵⁰- 16¹⁵	Dolgopolov I.N. (Russia, Moscow, Central Institute of Aviation Engines Making name P.I.Baranov). Synthesis of safety and effectiveness of application of aviation engines with using of risk analysis.
16¹⁵- 16⁴⁰	Melnikov V.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Military Engineering Technical University). Development of logical and probabilistic methods for investigation of effectiveness of complex systems.
16⁴⁰ - 16⁵⁰	Break
16⁵⁰- 17¹⁵	Ryabinin I.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy). Leningrad scientific school of logical and probabilistic methods of investigation of reliability and safety of structural complex systems.
17¹⁵- 17⁴⁰	Utkin Lev.V. (Russia, Sankt-Petersburg, St.Petersburg Forest Technical Academy). Assessment of risk under incomplete information.
17⁴⁰ - 18⁰⁵	Lyamkin A.D., Legoshin P.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Engineering Institute). Identification of functional state of dangerous nuclear objects for risk estimation.

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Wednesday, June 20 ______________________________________________________________________

Third plenary session, IPME RAS, Conference Hall
Chairman A.A.Novosyolov

10⁰⁰ - 10⁴⁰	Tsiramua S.G. (Tbilisi, Georgian Polytechnical University). Logical and probabilistic models of estimation and management by bank staff.
10⁴⁰- 11²⁰	Ivanishev V.V., Marley V.E., Prohorov V.M., Rutkovsky E.K., Jusupov R.M. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS). Analysis of economic safety of armament plant on basis of algorithmic models.
11²⁰ - 12⁰⁰	Prohorovich V.E., Krasnov O.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Military Space Engineering University name A.Mozhaisky). Models and methods of investigation of safety of operation of elements ground-based space infrastructure.
12⁰⁰ - 12²⁰	Coffee
12²⁰- 12⁵⁰	Bautov A.N., Grishko Ja.P., Kozlov A.I., Kuznetsov V.I., Verin V.V. (Russia, 4 CSRI MD RF). Determination of optimal conditions of insurance of risks in space activity.
12⁵⁰-13²⁰	Slepyan E.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg). Ecological risk: essense and problems of revelation, measuring and analysis
13²⁰ - 13⁵⁰	Malafeyev O.A., Medvedeva T.F. (Russia, SSU). Dynamics of cooperation of banks on market of depositors and loaners.

Section "Risk in business and ecology", IPME RAS, Conference Hall

Chairman E.D. Solojentsev

15⁰⁰- 15²⁵	Vladimirov A.A. (Russia, Moscow, IPME RAS). Strategy of using of risks and management under extraordinary situations.
15²⁵- 15⁵⁰	Kanibaev B. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Intrumentals Making). Combinatorial and probabilistic analysis of logical and probabilistic risk models in business.
15⁵⁰- 16¹⁵	Kolari J. , Glennon D., Shin Hwan, Caputo M. ( USA, Texas A&M University). Predicting the failure of large U.S. commercial banks.
16¹⁵- 16⁴⁰	Belov P.G., Grazhdankin A.I. (Russia, Moscow, IPME RAS). Expert system of estimation of man-caused risk under functioning of system "man-machine-enviroment".
16⁴⁰ - 16⁵⁰	Break
16⁵⁰- 17¹⁵	Romanov V. (Russia). Risk-formative factors: characteristics and influence on risks. Risks of enterprise as components of risks.
17¹⁵- 17⁴⁰	Myasnikova G.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Logical and probabilistic model of quality of travel agency.
17⁴⁰ - 18⁰⁵	Tylybecov A.K. (Kyrgyz Republic, Bichket, International Science Center). Problems of radioactive's storage influence to the ecology.

Section "Risk in engineering", SPII RAS, Conference Hall
Chairman I.P.Simakov

15⁰⁰- 15²⁵	Gromov V.N. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Military Technical Engineering University). The investigation of effectiveness of systems of defence of automatics on basis of logical and probabiistic simulation methods.
15²⁵- 15⁵⁰	Demidov Ju.F. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy). Problems and methods of combinatorial-consecutive structural-logical simulation of safety, risk and quality of complex system processes.
15⁵⁰- 16¹⁵	Sineshuk Ju.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Institute of Radioelectronics). Information aspects of safety of organisational-technical systems.
16¹⁵- 16⁴⁰	Konev V.P. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy). Software of quality estimation of structural organisation of complex objects.
16⁴⁰ - 16⁵⁰	Break
16⁵⁰- 17¹⁵	Kuzin A.M. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SIU "Aurora"). Probabilistic analysis of safety and substantiation of structural organisation of controlling systems of systems of safety of power units of nuclear power-station.
17¹⁵- 17⁴⁰	Grankin B.K., Fyodorov F.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Military space engineering University name A.F.Mozhaisky). Models and methods of analysis of safety of complex technical systems of space purposes.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁵	Sokolov E.I., Anikeychik N.D. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Military space engineering University name A.F.Mozhaisky). Development of method of monitoring of safety of operation of technical systems of rocket launching pad.

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Thirsday, June 21 ______________________________________________________________________

Fourth plenary session, June, 19, IPME RAS, Conference Hall
Chairman V.E.Prohorovich

10⁰⁰ - 10³⁵	Karassev V.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Investigations of identification of logical and probabilistic risk models in business.
10³⁵ - 11¹⁰	Giovanni Barone-Adesi, Kostas Giannopoulos, Les Vosper (Switzerland, University of Lousanne). Backtesting Derivative Portfolios with FHS.
11¹⁰ - 11⁴⁵	Alexandrov V.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS). Developing systems: stability, quality and effectiveness.
11⁴⁵ - 12²⁰	Volik B.G. (Russia, Moscow, IPC RAS). Models of analysis of man-caused safety.
12²⁰ - 12³⁰	Coffee
12³⁰ - 13⁰⁵	Lbov G.S., Berikov V.B. (Russia, Novosibirsk, Institute of Mathematics of SD RAS). Computer-based system for analysis of statistical information about extraordinary situations.
13⁰⁵- 13⁴⁰	Vitlinsky V.V. (Ukraine, Kiev National Economic University). Analysis, simulation of risk and risk management in economy and business undertakings.
13⁴⁰ - 14⁰⁰	DISCUSSION

Section "Risk in business and ecology", IPME RAS, Conference Hall

Chairman V.I. Dubrovin

15⁰⁰- 15²⁵	Maximov V.I., Kovriga S.V., Avdeeva Z.K., Makarenko D.I. (Russia, Moscow, ICP RAS). Structurization of risks in cognitive analysis and simulation of development of complex social and economic objects.
15²⁵- 15⁵⁰	Doroshenko Ju.N., Dubrovin V.I. (Ukraine, Zaporozhye State Technical University). Analysis of effectiveness of many-dimensional control of quality.
15⁵⁰- 16¹⁵	Vnukov Ju.N., Dubrovin V.I., Tabunshik G.V. (Ukraine, Zaporozhye State Technical University). Risk analysis in tasks of tolerance analysis.
16¹⁵- 16⁴⁰	Dubrovin V.I., Subbotin S.A., Adamenko V.A., Basov Ju.F. (Ukraine, Zaporozhye State Technical University, public corporation "Motor-Sich"). Building of hybrid systems of diagnostics of components of power installation on basis of neural networks.
16⁴⁰ - 16⁵⁰	Break
16⁵⁰- 17¹⁵	Bychenkov Ju.D., Kalinichenko S.P., Zaviruha V.K., Zamyatin A.Ju., Starikov I.A. (Russia, Centre of Reception of Space Information AANII, SRI "Prognoz", SPII RAN, North-European region of State Atom Supervision). Using of tool of integrated remote control for estimation of risks on objects of nuclear energy.
17¹⁵-17⁴⁰	Solovyev M.M. (Oxford Broox University, GU-VSE (Moscow), Russia). Globalization and risks of rent business.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁰	DISCUSSION

Section "Risk in engineering", SPII RAS, Conference Hall
Chairman G.I.Prohorovich

15⁰⁰- 15²⁵	Penkov M.M., Prohorovich G.I., Sokolov E.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Military space engineering University name A.F.Mozhaisky). Method of technical and economic analysis of possible risk during refuelling of space object with cryogen components of fuel.
15²⁵ - 15⁵⁰	Antonov G.N. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Academy). Some theoretical aspects of forecast of risk of macnine-caused catastrophes with account of rare events.
15⁵⁰- 16¹⁵	Ermakovich Ju.L., Ershov G.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Engineering Institute). Structural and logical modelling and risk estimationin dangerous nuclear objects by unfavourable outside influences.
16¹⁵- 16⁴⁰	Legoshin P.V., Lyamkin A.D. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Engineering Institute). The ways of increasing of automation level for process of modelling of safety of complex systems in ASC enviroment.
16⁴⁰ - 16⁵⁰	Break
16⁵⁰- 17¹⁵	Kirjuhin S.N., Shimanskaya A.O. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Military Technical Engineering University). Investigation of stability ans quality of adaptive control systems for technological processes by methods of mathematical simulation.
17¹⁵- 18⁰⁰	DISCUSSION

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Friday, June 22

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Fifth plenary session, IPME RAS, Conference Hall
Chairman E.D.Solojentsev

10⁰⁰ - 10⁴⁰	Hovanov N.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS). A stochastic model for financial risk treating under uncertainty.
10⁴⁰ - 11²⁰	Zaslavsky V.A. (Ukraine, Kiev National University by name of Taras Shevchenko). Mathematical models and algorithms of optimisation of integral regional risk.
11²⁰- 12⁰⁰	Kibzun A.I., Kuznetsov E.A. (Russia, Moscow State Aviation Institute). Quantile strategy of forming of security portfolio.
12⁰⁰ - 12²⁰	Coffee
12²⁰- 13⁰⁰	Ershov G.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Naval Engineering Institute). Methodology and practice of automated structural and logical simulation and calculation of safety of objects of nuclear power.
13⁰⁰ - 13⁴⁰	Kozine I., Duijm N., Hagen H. ( Denmark, Systems Analysis Department, Risoe National Laboratory). Seveso II Directive and Danish Activity in Supporting its Application in Eastern European countries.
13⁴⁰- 14⁰⁰	DISCUSSION
15^{00 _}16⁰⁰	ROUND - TABLE. Chairman I.A.Ryabinin
16⁰⁰- 16³⁰	CLOSING of International Scientific School MA SRQ - 2001