Intelligent Integrated Systems of Automated Design Laboratory (IISAD)

Location	International program Committee	Participation	Sponsors
Areas of interest	National Organizing Committee	Publication	Registration Fee
MASR - 2002 Program

RUS

SECOND INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC SCHOOL
in SAINT-PETERSBURG, RUSSIA, JULY 2-5, 2002

"MODELLING and ANALYSIS of SAFETY and RISK
in COMPLEX SYSTEMS" (MA SR – 2002)

LOCATION of the SCHOOL

The year 2002 International Scientific School "Modelling and analysis of safety and risk in complex systems (MA SR –2002)" will be held in Saint-Petersburg , Russia from July 2 to July 5.

The School will be conducted by the Institute of Problems of Mechanical Engineering (IPME) of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), the Saint-Petersburg Institute of Informatics and Automation of RAS, the Saint-Petersburg Scientific Center of RAS, the International Academy of Informatics and the Russian Foundation of Fundamental Research. The school's address is: IPME RAS, Russia, 199178, Saint-Petersburg, V.O., Bolshoi pr., 61.

AREAS of INTEREST

The main research areas to be discussed at the school in the year 2002 are:

1. Quantitative methods of measurement and analysis of risk in financial, ecological, technical and social complex systems;
2. New methods in decision-making with reference to risk control;
3. The relations between different areas of risk;
4. The development of overall theory of risk.

These more specific topics will be discussed at the School:

a) Capital Markets Risk

Market Risk;
Operational and Liquidity Risk;
Credit Risk;
Legal Risk

b) Risk in Engineering and ecology

Scenarios and models of the safety and risk;
Risk measures and price of risk;
New methods of risk analysis;
Risk management;
Parametrical and structural identification of risk models;
Software for the modeling and analysis of risk.

Leading Western and Russian scientists will give lectures in the field of financial, ecological and technical risks. The scientific program includes plenary reports, reports in sections, roundtable discussions and demonstrations of specialized Software.

All participants will have the possibility to see the wonderful city - Saint-Petersburg and its suburbs during the White Nights.

The official languages of the School are English and Russian.

The next banks and large industrial companies are intended to participate in our School:

BANKS:

1. Hanta-Mansiisky Bank (Moscow)
2. International Moscow Bank (Moscow)
3. Transcapitalbank (Moscow)
4. Nicoil (St.Petersburg)
5. International Bank (St.Petersburg)
6. Incasbank (St.Petersburg)
7. Bashkirsky Dom (St.Petersburg)
8. Transcapitalbank (St.Petersburg. It is the of Moscow's bank branch)

LARGE INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES:

1. DATAMAT Group (ITALY)
2. CNII "Granit" (St.Petersburg)
3. ZILSTROI INVEST (St.Petersburg)
4. CKB "Rubin" (St.Petersburg)
5. GUP "Vodokanal" (St.Petersburg)
6. GP aviapredpriyatie "Pulkovo" (St.Petersburg)
7. OAO "Kirovsky zavod" (St.Petersburg)
8. OAO "Lenenergo" (St.Petersburg)

INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM COMMITTEE

Chairman: Academician K.V. Frolov (Russia)

Co-chairmen:

Giannopoulos K., Professor (UAE , University of UAE),
Ivchenko B., Professor (Russia, International Academy Informatics),
Machutov N., Corresponding Member of the RAS (Russia, IMASH RAS),
Philippatos G., Professor (USA, University of Tennessee),
Ryabinin I., Professor (Russia, Naval Academy),
Solojentsev E., Professor (Russia, IPMASH RAS).

Members of Program Committee

Abramovich W., Professor (Poland)	Clark E., Professor (UK)
Barone-Adesi G., Professor (Switzerland)	Pritsker M., Professor. (USA)
Bulatov V.P., Professor (Russia)	Prohorovich V.E., Professor (Russia)
Elinov V.L. , President of bank "XM" (Russia)	Rusakov O.V., Professor (Russia)
Finkelstein M.S., Professor (UAR)	Rutberg F.G., Academician (Russia)
Harlamov B.P., Professor (Russia)	Vitlinsky V.V., Professor (Ukraine)
Hovanov N.V., Professor (Russia)	Tkachev G.I., Vice-governor of St.Petersburg
Kibzun A.I., Professor (Russia)	Uryasev S., Professor (USA)
Kumamoto H., Professor (Japan)	Voitetsky V.V., Professor (Russia)
Lisnyansky A., Professor (Israel)	Volik B.G., Professor (Russia)
Novoselov A.A., Professor (Russia)	Young L. Alvin, Professor (USA)
Morosov N.F., Academician (Russia)	Yusupov R.M., Professor (Russia)
Mozaev A.S., Professor (Russia)	Zalikhanov M. Ch., Academician (Russia)
Nikulin M.C., Professor (France)	Zdornov V.A., Chief designer of Rubin (Russia)

NATIONAL ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

E.Solojentsev - chairman,
B.Ivchenko – vice-chairman,
V. Karassev - secretary, V.Melnikov, V.Alexandrov

SPONSORS

- Russian Fund of Fundamental Investigations
- Datamat group is one of the Italian leading groups in the Information & Communication Technology industry.

THE PLACE OF HOLDING:

- DETU, Conference Hall (Plenary sessions and section "Risk in engineering and ecology"), Saint-Petersburg, ul. Zakharyevskaya, 22.
- Hotel "Marshal", large Conference Hall (section "Capital Markets Risk"), Saint-Petersburg, ul. Shpalernaya, 41
- Hotel "Marshal", small Conference Hall (section "Risk theory and decision making"), Saint-Petersburg, ul. Shpalernaya, 41

PROGRAM

___________________________________________________________________
Tuesday, July 2
__________________________________________________________________

First plenary session
Chairman N.A.Machutov

10⁰⁰	- Opening of International Scientific School. Head of DETU lieutenant-general V.A. Chmyrev - opening address.
10⁰⁵- 10⁴⁰	- Giannopoulos K. (College of Business and Economics, UAE University, UAE). VaR modelling on Long Run Horizons.
10⁴⁰- 11¹⁵	- Jerzy Jazwinski (Air Force Institute, Warsaw,), Krzysztof Kolowrocki (Gdynia Maritime University), Zbigniew Smalko (Warsaw University of Technology). Reliability and Risk Evaluation of Large Systems.
11¹⁵- 11⁵⁰	- Yusupov R.¼., Zamyatin A.Yu. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPIA RAS). Safety and risks model of telecommunication system.
11⁵⁰ - 12¹⁰	Coffee
12¹⁰- 12⁴⁵	- Ryabinin I.A. (Russia, St.Petersburg, MMA named after admiral Kuznetsov N.G.). Probabilistic logic and the logical-probabilistic calculus.
12⁴⁵ - 13²⁰	- Ardychev S. (Russia), Cherubini U., G. Della Lunga (DATAMAT S.p.A., Italy). Value-at-Risk for Russian Stocks. Myths and realities.
13²⁰ - 13⁵⁵	- Giesecke K. (Department of Economics, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, Germany). Default compensator, incomplete information, and the term structure of credit spreads.

Section "Capital Markets Risk"
Chairman V.V. Vitlinsky

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Lukianenko I.G. (NaUKMA). Economic growth and features of promotional politics with account of risk.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Smirnov S.N., Skvortsov A.A. The structure of most risky securities portfolio in margin trading.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Pernarivsky A.V. (Ukraine, Irpin, Academy of a State Tax Service of Ukraine). The complex risk consideration at determination of the interest rate by the currency credits of commercial bank.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Hovanov N. V. (Russia, St. Petersburg State University), Kolari J. W. (USA, Texas A&M University), Sokolov M. V. (Russia, A.V.K. Investment Company). Aggregated world currency of minimal risk.
16²⁰- 16⁴⁰	- Ivchenko B.P., Martyshenko L.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Institute of sustainable development of North-Western region). Life cycle of complex system and mathematical models of estimation of its duration.
16⁴⁰- 17⁰⁰	- Break
17⁰⁰- 17²⁰	- Kozin I. (Ukraine, Zaporozhye, Zaporozhye State University). Interaction of two economic agents with various attitude to risk.
17²⁰- 17⁴⁰	- Korolev D.A., Mihin M.N. (Russia, Moscow, Moscow State Academy of Instrumental Making and Informatics). Inventory management on basis of market risks.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁰	- Solojentsev E.D., Maximov A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Statistical, combinatorial and logic and probabilistic analysis of risks in complex systems with groups of incompatible events.
18⁰⁰- 18²⁰	- Guha D. (USA, New York, Research Alphanomics LLC). Conditional Value at Risk Using Macroeconomic Information.

Section "Risk in engineering and ecology"
Chairman A.S. Mozhaev

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Dubrovin V.I., Tabunshik G.V. (Ukraine, Zaporozhye, Zaporozhye National Technical University). The providing of minimal risk in design of complex technical objects.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Grazhdankin A.I., Lisanov M.V., Pecherkin A.S. (Russia, Moscow, GUP "NTC Industrial Safety " of the State City Engineering Supervision of Russia). About using of probabilistic estimations for analysis of safety of dangerous manufacturing objects.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Ivanischev V.V., Marley V.E., Tuboltzeva V.V., Nehoroshkin N.T., Stoliarov Yu. K., Galushka V.N. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS). Aggregated algorithmic model for life circle of equipment based on algorithmic nets in view of dependence of intensity of breakages from quality of exploitation.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Gubanov Ju.A., Efimova M.I., Leuta A.A. (Russia, Saint-Petrsburg, SIE "Aurora"). The technology of software and physical modelling of ship's electrical power systems in control flow.
16²⁰- 16⁴⁰	- Ershov G. A., Legoshin P. V. (Russia, Saint-Petesrburg, Navy Engineering Institute), Sobolev A. N. (FGUP SPb "Atomenergoproject"). Probabilistic analysis of safety of nuclear power objects.
16⁴⁰- 17⁰⁰	- Break
17⁰⁰- 17²⁰	- Jaroshenko A.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, MMA named after admiral Kuznetsov N.G.). Integrated providing of vitality of objects with complex structure.
17²⁰- 17⁴⁰	- Nozik A.A.(Russia, Saint-Petersburg, "SEVZAPMONTAZHAUTOMATIKA"). The technology of automated structural and logical modelling in project calculations of reliability of systems.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁰	- Karpachev V. E. (Russia, Rostov, Rostov Rocket Institute). The method of derivation of expressions for calculation of conditional probabilities of connectedness of ACS objects with partial reserving of control functions.

Section "Risk theory and decision making"
Chairman B.A. Kulik

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Martyshenko L.A., Shumeyko N.S., Shumeyko A.V., Nesmeyanov D.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Institute of sustainable development of North-Western region). Methodological approaches to estimation of stability of complex systems.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Utkin L. V. (Munich University, Institute of Statistics, Germany). Avoiding the conflicting risk assessments.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Zhihotskaya N.V. (Ukraina, NII RE KNEU). Risk consideration related to rating management of educational services quality.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Pesikov E.B. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, North-west Institute of Press of Saint-Petersburg University of Technology and Design). The making of decisions in risk conditions about sales volume for production with probabilistic nature of tehnological process.
16²⁰- 16⁴⁰	- Esipov Ju.V., Krasnobayev I. A., Shilov V.A.(Russia, Rostov, RGSU). Plural-parametrical modeling and possibility (safety) risk assessment of unique systems.
16⁴⁰- 17⁰⁰	- Break
17⁰⁰- 17²⁰	- Ivchenko B.P., Martyshenko L.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Institute of sustainable development of North-Western region). Theoretical and probabilistic basis of estimation of risk of man-caused damages and accidents with using of limited information.
17²⁰- 17⁴⁰	- Kudelya V. N. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, MMA named after admiral Kuznetsov N.G.). Calculation complexity of tasks of analysis of safety and risk in complex systems.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁰	- Haziev N. N. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, "SEVZAPMONTAZHAUTOMATIKA"). Risk software.

___________________________________________________________________
Wednesday, July 3
__________________________________________________________________

Second plenary session
Chairman I.A.Ryabinin

10⁰⁰- 10³⁵	- Vitlinsky V.V. (Ukraine, Kiev National Economic University). Vector evaluation of risk degree during selection of investment projects.
10³⁵- 11¹⁵	- Yildirim H. S., Philippatos G. C. (Stokely Management Center, Department of Finance, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA). Competition and Contestability in Central and Eastern European Banking Markets.
11¹⁵- 11⁵⁰	- M.S.Finkelstein (Republic of South Africa, University of the Orange Free State). Stochastic approach to the safety at sea assessment.
11⁵⁰ - 12¹⁰	Coffee
12¹⁰- 12⁴⁵	- Ivchenko B.P. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Institute of sustainable development of North-Western region). The solving of problems of sustainable development is a immediate task of mankind.
12⁴⁵ - 13²⁰	- Mozhaev A. S. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, "SEVZAPMONTAZHAUTOMATIKA") Demidov Yu.F. (Russia, St.Petersburg, MMA named after admiral Kuznetsov N.G.). Algorithmic basis of technology of automated structural and logical simulation in tasks of system analysis of reliability, safety and risk.
13²⁰ - 13⁵⁵	- Leippold M. (Swiss Banking Institute, University of Zurich, Switzerland), Trojani F., Vanini P. (Institute of Finance, University of Southern Switzerland). Mean-variance analysis in a multiperiod asset-liability model.

Section "Capital Markets Risk"
Chairman A. Novosyolov

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Bellalah M. (University of Cergy-Pontoise and University of Paris Dauphine, France), I. EL Farissi (University of Paris Dauphine, University of Cergy-Pontoise, France). Some results on the comparative statics of optimal corporate financial structure: information uncertainty effect.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Giesecke K. (Department of Economics, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, Germany). Correlated default with incomplete information.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Skripnik A., Helemsky V. (Ukraine, State Tax Administration Academy). Rating of a supply and demand on credit resources in economy of Ukraine.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Novosyolov A. (Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Institute of computational modeling SB RAS). Diversification in a Portfolio.
16²⁰- 16⁴⁰	- Kharlamov B.P. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). On choise of the initial time for insurance.
16⁴⁰- 17⁰⁰	- Break
17⁰⁰- 17²⁰	- Verchenko P.I. (Ukraine, Kiev National Economic University). Hemming's Criterion for multipurpose decision choise under risk.
17²⁰- 17⁴⁰	- Naumov A.V. (Russia, Moscow, MAI). Integer task of two-stages quantile optimization.

Section "Risk in engineering and ecology"
Chairman V.E. Prokhorovich

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Grazhdankin A.I., Lisanov M.V., Degtyarev D.V., Pecherkin A.S., Sidorov V.I. (GUP "NTC Industrial Safety"), Sumskoy S.I. (MIFI). Accident risk analysis for oil pipeline systems BTS and CPC-R.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Doroshenko Ju.N., Dubrovin V.I. (Ukraine, Zaporozhye, Zaporozhye National Technical University). The algorithms of quality management: multivariate control charts.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Maslennikov Ju.N., Sharonov A.M. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SRC 26 CSRI MO). Dependence of risk indicators on reservation for technological system port - point of bunkerage of ships.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Yusupov R.M., Zavirukha V.º., Zamyatin A.Yu., Zamyatin V.Yu. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS). Definition of radiation and ecological risk for region with use of distant measurement systems and modern information technologies.
16²⁰- 16⁴⁰	- Potapychev S. N. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, MMA named after admiral Kuznetsov N.G.). The method of account of unreliable switches in dynamic models of reliability of complex systems.
16⁴⁰- 17⁰⁰	- Break
17⁰⁰- 17²⁰	- Shevchenko S. (Ukraina, Kharkov, National Technical University "HPI"). Optimisation of structure of multisupport construction with risks of failures and destructions.
17²⁰- 17⁴⁰	- Shuisky V.F. (Saint-Petersburg State Mining Institute), Drozhina K.S. (Saint-Petersburg, North-West Basin Administration on preservation, reproduction fish resources and fishery regulation), Pashkevich M.A., Petrov D.S., Petrova T.A., Maximova Â.V. (Saint-Petersburg State Mining Institute). Man-caused influence on freshwater ecosystems: the estimation of changings, ecological risk, damage.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁰	- Mozhaev A.S. (Russia, SPb, MMA named after admiral Kuznetsov N.G.), Sineshuk Ju.I. (Russia, SPb, VMIRE). The account of consecutions of failure of elements in models of stability of systems.

Section "Risk theory and decision making"
Chairman E.D. Solojentsev

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Perepelitsa V.A., Maxishko N.K. (Ukraine, Zaporozhye, Zaporozhye State University). Investigation of distributions with " heavy tails " in risk's modeling of accidents and catastrophes.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Komartsov I.O. (Russia, Moscow, Institute of World Economy), Komartsova L.G. (Russia, Kaluga, Kaluga's Branch of MSTU named after N.E. Bauman). Synergetic approach to increasing enterprises function quality.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Akhmedjanov F. M., Krymsky V.G. (Russia, Bashkortostan, Ufa State Aviation Technical University). Decision making for emergencies risk management with respect to uncertainty level measures.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Odintsev V.N. (Russia, Moscow, Institute of Problems of Integrated assimilation of The Earth's interior of RAS). Application of acceptable risk concept in comparison of mining scenarios.
16²⁰- 16⁴⁰	- Ivchenko B.P., Lipatov A.A., Smirnov A.A., Shevchenko V.G. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Institute of sustainable development of North-Western region). Social systems and leaders - the conception of modelling and management in united informational space.
16⁴⁰- 17⁰⁰	- Break
17⁰⁰- 17²⁰	- Shumeyko N.S., Shumeyko A.V., Eimannsberger A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Institute of sustainable development of North-Western region). Classification of risks in solving of problems of providing of stability of complex economic systems.
17²⁰- 17⁴⁰	- Cichocki A. (Poland, Gdynia Maritime Academy). Parallel-series multi-state systems of any order.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁰	- Tulupiev A.L. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, "SEVZAPMONTAZHAUTOMATIKA"). "WHAT-IF", an analyse of system reliability indicators in uncertain knowledge pattern bases.

___________________________________________________________________
Thursday, July 4
__________________________________________________________________

Third plenary session
Chairman V.V. Vitlinsky

10⁰⁰- 10³⁵	- Philippatos G.C. (Department of Finance, 432 Stokely Management Center, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA), Kuan C. (Department of Finance, School of Business and Management, Temple University, Philadelphia, USA), Puri T. N. (Department of Accounting and Finance, College of Business and Industry, University of Massachusetts – Dartmouth, North Dartmouth, USA). Volume Response to Price Changes in The Interest Rate Futures.
10³⁵- 11¹⁵	- Schmid B., Kalemanova A. (RiskLab GmbH, Munich, Germany). Applying a Three-Factor Defaultable Term Structure Model to the Pricing of Credit Default Options.
11¹⁵- 11⁵⁰	- Skripnik A. (Ukraina, Ukraina State Tax Administration Academy). Ukraina existence risk as independent State.
11⁵⁰ - 12¹⁰	Coffee
12¹⁰- 12⁴⁵	- Kibzun A.I. (Russia, Moscow, MAI). The choice of risk measure during forming of security portfolio.
12⁴⁵ - 13²⁰	- Grazhdankin A.I., Lisanov M.V., Pecherkin A.S. (Russia, Moscow, GUP "STC Industrial Safety" State City Engineering Supervision of Russia), Belov P.G. (MSTU named after N.E. Bauman). Simulating model of accident occurrence process on hazardous production facilities.
13²⁰ - 13⁵⁵	- Melnikov V.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, METU). Model of a reliability for structural-complicated systems, including multystate elements.

Section "Capital Markets Risk"
Chairman V.V. Vitlinsky

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Bellalah M., Besbes S. M. (University of Cergy-Pontoise, French). Transaction Costs and Shadow Costs In Capital Market Equilibrium
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Ardychev S. (Russia), Cherubini U., G. Della Lunga (DATAMAT S.p.A., Financial Division - ITALY, Financial System Engineering). DATAMAT Financial Products - Flexible and Complete Solution for Financial Modeling and Risk Management.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Vitlinsky V.V., Dolinsky L.B., (Ukraine, Kiev National Economical University). Analysis and modelling of the risks of bills of exchange.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Bakurova A. V., Vasilschenko E. A. (Ukraina, Zaporozhye, Zaporozhye State University). Simulation and estimation of credit risk with methods of fuzzy mathematics.
16²⁰- 16⁴⁰	- Karassev V.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Technical analysis and logic-probabilistic simulation.
16⁴⁰- 17⁰⁰	- Break
17⁰⁰- 17²⁰	- Romanov V. (Russia, Ulianovsk, Ulianovsk State Unibersity). The forming of mechanism of risk investigation and risk management on enterprise.
17²⁰- 17⁴⁰	- Solojentsev E.D., Rybakov A.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Researches in identification of logical and probabilistic risk models with groups of incompatible events.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁰	- Nikishin A. (Russia, Ulianovsk, State Technical University of Ulianovsk). Management of risks, caused by tax legislation on industrial plants.

Section "Risk in engineering and ecology"
Chairman V.A. Proursin

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Proursin V.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Dynamic models of reliability, safety and risk.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Korniychuk M.Â., Kapishon V.G., Sovtus I.K., (Ukraine, Kiev National Economical University). Method and models of estimation and optimisation of characteristics of risk of operation process of complex stohastically connected systems.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Nikulchev E.V., Nikulcheva E.V. (Russia, Moscow, Moscow State Academy of Instrumentals Making and Informatics). The modelling of process of control by dynamic systems in safety conditions.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Sineshuk Ju.I. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, VMIRE). Arrangement of properties and indicators of stability.
16²⁰- 16⁴⁰	- Yusupov R.M., Zavirukha V.K., Zamyatin A.Yu., Zamyatin V.Yu. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPIA RAS). Main methods of risk definition for hydrometeorology.
16⁴⁰- 17⁰⁰	- Break
17⁰⁰- 17²⁰	- Tarasov Ju. A. (Centre of Vulnerability Analysis, Group of Companies "ISTA"). The analysis of threats of nuclear terrorism.
17²⁰- 17⁴⁰	- Butorin S.L. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, GI "VNIPIET"). The methodology of analysis of safety of APP with account of seismic influences.
17⁴⁰- 18⁰⁰	- Tyurin G.A., Berezina L.V., Kuznetsov V.F., Malyshev I.N. (CSII named after academician A.N. Krylov, CDO MT "Rubin", SIC BTS MO RF, 1 CSII MO RF). Probabilistic approach to estimation and making of demands for external effects stabileness of complex technical systems.

Section "Risk theory and decision making"
Chairman B.V. Sokolov

15⁰⁰-15²⁰	- Mordashev V.M., Mordashev V.V., Mordashev M.V. (Russia, Moscow, Russian Scientific Centre “Kurchatov's Institute”). Nonlinear multiple-factor analysis in risk analysis.
15²⁰- 15⁴⁰	- Sorokin E. A., (Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Krasnoyarsk State University). Method of building of preference pattern of individual.
15⁴⁰- 16⁰⁰	- Karpachev V. E. (Russia, Rostov, Rostov Rocket Institute). Synthesis of graphs of communication networks with given structural characteristics.
16⁰⁰- 16²⁰	- Kulagin V.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Decision-making in conditions of strong uncertainty.
16²⁰- 16⁴⁰	- Kulik B.A. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). The reliability models of multi-state systems on the basis of cortege algebra.
16⁴⁰- 17⁰⁰	- Break
17⁰⁰- 17²⁰	- Grazhdankin A.I., Degtyarev D.V., Lisanov M.V., Pecherkin A.S. (Russia, Moscow, GUP "STC Industrial Safety" State City Engineering Supervision of Russia). Accident risk or estimation of undesirable losses.
17²⁰- 17⁴⁰	- Ershov G. A., Legoshin P. (Russia, Saint-Petesrburg, Navy Engineering Institute), Sobolev A. N. (FGUP SPb "Atomenergoproject"). Mathematical model of process of safe operation of KAPP on set of possible modes of its exploitation.

___________________________________________________________________
Friday, July 5
__________________________________________________________________

Fourth plenary session
Chairman B.P. Ivchenko

10⁰⁰- 10³⁵	- Alexandrov V.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPII RAS). Risk theory and cost of a risk.
10³⁵- 11¹⁵	- Novosyolov A. (Russia, Krasnoyarsk, Institute of computational modeling SB RAS). Measuring Risk.
11¹⁵- 11⁵⁰	- Sokolov B.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, SPIA RAS). Multiple-model multi-objective analysis of control effectiveness in a complex technical system.
11⁵⁰ - 12¹⁰	- Coffee
12¹⁰- 12⁴⁵	- Rylov M.I., Kamynov Sh.V. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, REScenter), Anisimov N.A. (Saint-Petersburg, CNII named after academician A.N. Krylov). The evaluation of risk in transportation and storage of irradiated fuel.
12⁴⁵ - 13²⁰	- Solojentsev E.D. (Russia, Saint-Petersburg, IPME RAS). Scenario management of risks of accidents and catastrophes in business and engineering.
13²⁰ - 14⁰⁰	- CLOSING of International Scientific School MA SR - 2002

___________________________________________________________________
Saturday, July 6
__________________________________________________________________

10⁰⁰- 13⁰⁰

- ROUND TABLES
Chairmans: Ryabinin I.A., Giannopoulos K., Hovanov N.V.

ORGANIZING COMMITTEE ADDRESS

Solojentsev Evgueni Dmitrievich
IPME RAS , Bolshoi pr.,61. V.O.
199178, St.Petersburg, RUSSIA
Tel.: 7(812)3214766 Fax.: 7(812)3214771
E_mail: esokar@gmail.com

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